A new Census Bureau analysis shows U.S. fertility rates keep falling — but among America’s largest counties, the three highest birth rates all belong to Texas
Here’s a stat to make a Texan smile, neighbor: while the country’s birth rate keeps sliding to record lows, three Texas counties just topped the entire nation. According to a new U.S. Census Bureau analysis released June 25, among all U.S. counties with at least 20,000 births last year, the three highest fertility rates were all right here in Texas.
The Census Bureau said that nationally, the general fertility rate — the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44 — has dropped nearly every year since 2007, falling from 69.5 that year to 53.1 in 2025, the lowest level in a data series that goes back to 1909. But the agency said that national decline hides big differences from place to place — and Texas stands out.
The Texas Standouts
According to the Census Bureau, big counties with both high numbers of births and high fertility rates are uncommon — usually the most populous counties have lots of births simply because of their size, but below-average fertility rates. Texas bucked that trend in a big way. Among all counties with at least 20,000 births in 2025, the three highest fertility rates in the country were Dallas County (37,108 births, with a rate of 62.6), Harris County (65,753 births, at 59.2), and Tarrant County (27,795 births, at 57.0).
To put that in perspective, the Census Bureau said the nation’s most populous county — Los Angeles — had by far the most births last year, more than 91,000, but a fertility rate of just 44.1, well below the median. Texas’s big three managed to pair large populations with rates that beat out every other major county in the country.
The Bigger Picture
The Census Bureau said all four regions of the country now sit well below the level associated with a stable population. The South led the nation with the highest regional fertility rate at 55.8, followed closely by the Midwest at 54.7, then the West at 51.0 and the Northeast lowest at 49.9.
The agency also noted an interesting wrinkle: across the country, the counties with the most births are often not the ones with the highest fertility rates. The highest rates of all tended to show up in smaller, more rural counties outside metro areas — some topping 120 births per 1,000 women — even though those places had far fewer total births.
The Census Bureau was careful to note that fertility is just one piece of how a population changes, alongside deaths and migration. But for now, the headline for the Lone Star State is a fun one: when it comes to big counties welcoming the next generation, everything really is bigger — and busier — in Texas.
