Austin Public Health has developed a groundbreaking online calculator that predicts measles outbreak potential in communities with declining vaccination rates, providing a critical tool as Texas continues fighting a measles outbreak that has affected multiple counties and resulted in two childhood fatalities.
The interactive calculator, created in partnership with the Texas Advanced Computing Center, transforms complex epidemiological data into actionable insights for school districts, healthcare providers, and community leaders facing vaccination decisions.
Calculator Details and Access
Tool Specifications:
- Website: https://epiengage-measles.tacc.utexas.edu
- Launch Date: March 2025
- Model Type: Stochastic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered)
- Outbreak Definition: 20 or more new infections
- Simulation Base: 200 scenarios per calculation
Current Adopters:
- New York City, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso, Dallas
- States of Texas and Massachusetts
- Illinois (replicated model for local use)
- Austin EMS and Northeast Texas Health departments
Texas Measles Crisis Context
The calculator’s development comes amid serious public health challenges across Texas. There have been two fatalities in school-aged children who lived in the outbreak area. The children were not vaccinated and had no known underlying conditions. DSHS has identified designated outbreak counties with ongoing measles transmission: Gaines and Lamar.
As of March 4, they had reported 159 cases in 2025. Most of those cases—107 of them—are from Gaines County.
Similar Tools in Other Texas Cities
Currently, no other Texas cities have developed comparable outbreak modeling tools, making Austin’s calculator unique within the state. The tool launched in March and is being used by New York City, Houston, Dallas, and the states of Texas and Massachusetts. However, these cities are utilizing Austin’s calculator rather than developing independent systems.
Key Benefits
For School Districts:
- Predicts outbreak scenarios based on current vaccination rates
- Supports informed policy decisions about vaccination requirements
- Helps allocate resources for potential health emergencies
- Provides data-driven communication tools for parents
For Healthcare Providers:
- Assists in pandemic preparedness planning
- Identifies high-risk communities requiring intervention
- Supports vaccination campaign targeting
- Enables proactive resource allocation
For Community Leaders:
- Offers evidence-based risk assessment capabilities
- Facilitates public health messaging with concrete data
- Supports emergency response planning
- Helps justify public health investments
Potential Shortcomings
Technical Limitations:
- Current model assumes no active outbreak response measures
- Does not account for breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals
- Models single, unstructured populations rather than complex community dynamics
- Requires accurate vaccination rate data that may not always be available
Implementation Challenges:
- May oversimplify complex epidemiological factors
- Effectiveness depends on user interpretation and appropriate application
- Limited to measles-specific scenarios
- Requires technical understanding for optimal utilization
Risks of Misuse
Potential Problems:
- Could create panic if misinterpreted or taken out of context
- May be used inappropriately to justify extreme policy positions
- Risk of selective data presentation to support predetermined conclusions
- Possible over-reliance on modeling versus real-world public health measures
Mitigation Strategies:
- Comprehensive user training and clear interpretation guidelines
- Regular model updates incorporating new epidemiological understanding
- Transparent communication about model limitations and assumptions
- Integration with broader public health expertise and local context
Health Risks and Public Safety
The calculator addresses urgent health concerns highlighted by current Texas outbreaks. Measles presents serious risks, particularly for unvaccinated children, including pneumonia, brain swelling, and death. The disease’s high contagion rate means even small decreases in vaccination coverage can trigger significant outbreaks.
Planned Improvements:
- Integration of breakthrough infection data
- Healthcare burden assessment capabilities
- Active outbreak response modeling
- Structured population dynamics
- Enhanced user interface and interpretation guides
Expert Perspectives
Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County Health Authority, emphasized the tool’s importance: “In communities where vaccination rates dip even slightly, the risk of measles outbreaks rises dramatically. This new measles calculator puts that reality into stark relief.”
Lauren Ancel Meyers from UT Austin added: “In collaboration with Austin Public Health, we’ve developed this measles outbreak calculator to help individuals, schools and leaders nationwide understand the rising risks and take effective steps to protect themselves and those around them.”
Moving Forward
As Texas continues managing its measles outbreak, the calculator represents a proactive approach to public health challenges. The tool’s adoption by major cities nationwide demonstrates its potential value, while ongoing improvements promise enhanced accuracy and usability.
The calculator serves as both practical tool and stark reminder that vaccination decisions affect entire communities, making individual choices matters of collective public health responsibility.
